Bold Predictions

We're almost approaching the midway point of 2008. With the spring rush come and gone, will the following bold predictions hold true till the end of the year?

Here is a compilation of predictions for the Calgary real estate market made at the beginning of this year. Keep in mind, some of these predictions seem formulated with an absence of supply-demand economic fundamentals (severely weakened sales and record high inventory).

"Jan 30
It speaks to the amazing strength of the Calgary economy that in spite of decreased sales and increased inventory, the price is remaining stable, or even rising slightly. If prices stay where they are now, and I fully expect them to, within a +/- 5% range, the buyers will appear. People have been waiting to see what would happen in January and now they know. My phone is busy, and many other realtors I've talked with, report plenty of interest. Sales will be down considerably this year compared to the frenzied activity of 2006 and 2007, but it seems to be a non-issue. When you compare this year's sales to the years when we had a normal balanced market, we're right on the average.

Will my prediction come true?
I predicted on Jan 30 that Single Family Home prices would fluctuate this year within +/- 5% of the January price. That would mean we could see a drop in median prices to as low as $389,500, and average price to $432,532."
-Bob Truman, First Place Realty (source: What's New Section)

"The average sale price of a single-family home in the city will flirt with the half-million-dollar mark this year, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board.

In its 2008 forecast Wednesday, real estate board president Ed Jensen said the MLS average will increase by five per cent this year to $495,800 while condominium prices will rise by six per cent to an average of $335,300.

Total sales will dip by five per cent for both the condo and single-family markets, to 7,700 and 17,500 respectively, compared with 2007."
-Ed Jensen, President of CREB (source: Calgary house prices to inch toward $500,000)

"We're looking at about 5.5 per cent moderation in MLS sales and our price growth is in the same ballpark. We're looking around the 3.5 to five per cent level, too," said Louie. "There is a lot of supply out there. Going into the last part of the year we saw demand ease off. Some of that was because of the higher prices, but also there is a lower level of net migration that we're seeing coming to Alberta."
-Lai Sing Louie, senior CHMC Calgary market analyst (source: Calgary house prices to inch toward $500,000)

"And in the long-term, real estate here looks great, says Campbell, adding year-over-year average house price gains in Calgary should be in the 11 per cent range this year."
-Don Campbell, President of REIN Canada (source: Is housing influenza infecting Calgary?)

Update:
"The CMHC's Spring 2008 Calgary Housing Market Outlook, released Thursday, said the average residential price for a resale home in the Calgary census metropolitan area will hit $429,000 this year (3.6% increase), increasing from $414,066 in 2007.

The average price is forecast to climb to $450,000 next year.

...

The CMHC said MLS sales will decline by 19.2 per cent this year from 32,176 in 2007 to 26,000, but sales will rebound in 2009 with a 2.9 per cent increase to 26,750.

Also, new listings in the resale market are expected to rise by 14.4 per cent this year to 62,000 from 54,202 in 2007. But they will drop by 9.7 per cent in 2009 to 56,000."
-CMHC's Spring 2008 Calgary Housing Market Outlook (source: Housing gains take breather)